Possible scenario
Fed Split Widens
20% Chance
The market sees a growing split between officials emphasizing still-high inflation and those stressing the long glide path back to 2%. This creates uncertainty without a clear directional repricing of the whole policy path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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