Possible scenario
Data Temper Hawkishness
30% Chance
Markets treat Hammack’s comments as hawkish but not decisive because the latest core PCE reading came in below expectations. Investors focus on the possibility that disinflation is gradually resuming, limiting the pricing of additional hikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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