Possible scenario
Naval Corridor Opens
25% Chance
The US, UK, France and Gulf partners organize a protected route through the strait, lowering the immediate risk premium without fully normalizing traffic. Tanker rates fall from panic levels, and oil prices retrace part of the Hormuz premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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