Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Persists
40% Chance
Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed or only intermittently usable, and most mainstream carriers continue to avoid the area. The $2 billion tanker bet gains credibility as scarce willing tonnage commands extreme spot rates and oil buyers pay up for secure liftings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.