Possible scenario
Gulf Escalation Widens
25% Chance
Additional strikes or a direct US-Iran exchange make the strait even less navigable and force more insurers and shipowners out of the trade. Oil prices jump, volatility rises, and tanker owners benefit only if their vessels can avoid physical-loss risk while capturing higher global rates.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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