Possible scenario
Mediated Off-Ramp
30% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European governments press both sides toward a temporary maritime arrangement. Trump maintains public demands, but back-channel talks produce a face-saving framework to reopen Hormuz without immediately resolving the blockade dispute.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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