Possible scenario
Broader Military Escalation
20% Chance
A lethal attack on U.S. forces or commercial shipping triggers direct U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal missile, drone, and radar assets. Tehran retaliates through the IRGC and allied militias, raising the risk of a wider Gulf conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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