Possible scenario
Armed Standoff Persists
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a coercive standoff rather than an immediate settlement or full war. Washington keeps the blockade in place while Tehran maintains pressure at Hormuz, with naval escorts, tanker delays, and sporadic incidents but no decisive climbdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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