Possible scenario
Military Reconstitution Race
20% Chance
The admission exposes the scale of damage to Iran's missile force and increases pressure on Tehran to rebuild survivable strike capacity. The IRGC shifts resources toward mobility, drones, cruise missiles, hardened storage, and foreign component sourcing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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