Possible scenario
Domestic Accountability Crisis
25% Chance
The first official death toll creates a domestic accountability problem for President Pezeshkian and the IRGC Aerospace Force. Rival factions use the figure to question operational security, intelligence failures, and the scale of losses from Israeli and U.S. strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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