Possible scenario
Trump Retaliates
20% Chance
The White House rejects the EU's argument that the levy is broad and non-discriminatory, treating it as a disguised digital tax on U.S. champions. This path carries the clearest market downside because the dispute could spill from technology taxation into goods trade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.9%
- Technology -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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