Possible scenario
Backlash Delays Shift
20% Chance
Civil-society groups, parts of the governing coalition and ethics advocates push back, linking the defense-stock change to recent scrutiny of Israeli holdings and Caterpillar's exclusion. The government does not reject the panel outright, but it delays a decision pending additional safeguards.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- ESLT-0.9%
- CAT-0.3%
- RTX-0.2%
- LMT-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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