Possible scenario
Infrastructure Breakdown Widens
15% Chance
Further strikes or cascading grid failures disable additional electricity and water infrastructure before repairs can stabilize the system. This would turn the warning into a broader wartime urban services crisis, with modest but visible geopolitical risk-off effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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