Possible scenario
Hawkish Fed Repricing
38% Chance
Markets treat Williams's warning as evidence that AI-related capital spending is no longer just a growth story but a persistent demand shock. Treasury yields rise as investors price a longer period of restrictive policy, with AI-heavy equities bearing the brunt.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Utilities -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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