Possible scenario
AI Capex Moderates
27% Chance
Large technology firms respond to higher financing costs and political scrutiny by slowing the pace of data-center commitments. That reduces inflation pressure at the margin but creates a near-term headwind for AI hardware and power-demand beneficiaries.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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