Possible scenario
Limited Investigative Fallout
38% Chance
The newly released records clarify Crooks's pre-attack surveillance but do not materially change the known account of the Butler security failure. Federal agencies treat the drone use as another documented lapse rather than evidence of a broader plot.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- AXON+0.5%
- AVAV+0.4%
- RTX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.