Possible scenario
Talks Restart Slowly
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is a renewed diplomatic channel without a binding ceasefire. Trump uses Putin's stated interest to justify another envoy round, while Kyiv and European capitals press for security guarantees before any concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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