Possible scenario
Enforcement Rebounds
22% Chance
GAO scrutiny creates enough political pressure that the CFTC quickly demonstrates activity through new fraud actions. The most visible targets would be crypto intermediaries, retail commodity schemes, and manipulation cases where staff investigations were already advanced.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-1.9%
- CME+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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