Possible scenario
Security Measures Escalate
15% Chance
Even if the powder is harmless, bipartisan targeting of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ron Johnson leads congressional leaders to expand office protections. The outcome is operationally disruptive for Capitol staff but still modest in macro-financial terms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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