Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation
30% Chance
Riyadh responds with limited air or missile strikes against Houthi launch infrastructure in Yemen, likely with U.S. intelligence and logistical support. The exchange remains bounded but lifts the geopolitical risk premium for Gulf energy and aviation assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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