Possible scenario
Contained Rolling Protests
30% Chance
The education protests continue through rotating blockades and regional strike days, but they remain mainly confined to schools and universities. The government absorbs the disruption while trying to avoid wider public-sector escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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