Possible scenario
Budget Fight Intensifies
20% Chance
Education funding becomes the focal point of a broader fight over France's post-downgrade fiscal plan. The risk is not an immediate crisis, but a noisier budget process that complicates the government's attempt to reassure investors on debt dynamics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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