Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Repricing
40% Chance
Japan's long-end yield rise is treated as a repricing of term premium rather than a funding crisis. The Bank of Japan avoids emergency action, while domestic insurers and pension funds gradually absorb higher-yielding JGB supply.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.