Possible scenario
Fiscal Strain Escalates
20% Chance
Investors focus on Japan's heavy debt load and the rising cost of refinancing as the long end sells off. The Ministry of Finance comes under pressure to alter issuance or improve auction demand.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.0%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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