Possible scenario
BOJ Turns More Hawkish
25% Chance
The record 30-year yield is interpreted as confirmation that the BOJ may need to move faster to anchor inflation expectations and stabilize the yen. Markets price another near-term rate increase after the September hike to 1.25%.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.2%
- Technology -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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