Possible scenario
Turkish-NATO Response
15% Chance
Turkey raises the incident with NATO and uses its leverage over the Black Sea and Bosporus to demand Russian restraint. The response remains largely diplomatic and naval-posture related, but markets price a higher probability of NATO-Russia miscalculation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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