Possible scenario
Normalization Track Reopens
25% Chance
The summit expands from security coordination into a broader Abraham Accords repair effort. Arab states condition deeper ties with Israel on Gaza reconstruction, Palestinian Authority reforms, and limits on unilateral Israeli steps in the West Bank.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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