Possible scenario
Voluntary Regime Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Trump administration keeps AI oversight centered on voluntary corporate commitments, private safety testing, and limited federal coordination. This fits the administration's deregulatory posture while allowing major AI firms to show cooperation after forming a private safety body.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.3%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT+1.8%
- META+1.3%
- NVDA+1.3%
- AMZN+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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