Possible scenario
Yields Grind Higher
40% Chance
Investors continue to price a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve path after inflation and factory-price data reinforce the recent selloff. The 10-year yield moves above 5.34% as term premium, inflation expectations, and Treasury supply concerns remain dominant.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Utilities -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.