Possible scenario
Risk Assets Reprice
20% Chance
The yield surge begins to feed through more visibly into equities, credit, and housing-linked assets. Investors focus on refinancing risk, weaker housing affordability, and the possibility that tighter financial conditions slow the economy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.5%
- Technology -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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