Possible scenario
Orderly Downgrade Absorbed
20% Chance
The downgrade remains painful for Indonesian equities but does not become a broader emerging-market event. Investors distinguish Indonesia's free-float and market-access issues from the rest of the MSCI EM universe.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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