Possible scenario
Official Stabilization Works
32% Chance
Indonesian authorities respond quickly with liquidity assurances, buyback flexibility and direct engagement with MSCI. The market recovers part of the initial fall as investors price a lower probability of disorderly index outflows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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