Possible scenario
Forced Selling Extends
38% Chance
Passive and benchmark-aware investors continue reducing Indonesia exposure as they model the country outside MSCI Emerging Markets. The selloff remains concentrated in Jakarta-listed large caps, but global risk indicators move modestly because the shock is country-specific rather than systemic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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