Possible scenario
Shipping Disruption Widens
20% Chance
Commercial carriers and insurers conclude that the downing of a U.S. Navy aircraft signals a higher threat environment for all Red Sea traffic. Even without a major U.S.-Iran confrontation, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope lifts freight costs, transit times, and marine insurance rates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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