Possible scenario
Calibrated US Retaliation
40% Chance
Washington treats the Seahawk shootdown as a serious breach of the 2025 truce but avoids a campaign aimed at regime-level escalation in Yemen. The most likely near-term response is targeted strikes on launch sites, radar, and command nodes, paired with expanded naval escorts in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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