Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
16% Chance
Alliance officials frame the one-year window as a readiness target rather than an intelligence forecast of Russian attack. Backchannel talks and public clarification reduce immediate escalation fears, though NATO spending plans remain in place.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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