Possible scenario
Soft Landing Easing
45% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled cooling in pay growth that reinforces disinflation without triggering an immediate labor-market break. Markets price a higher chance of Federal Reserve easing in late 2026 or early 2027 while consumer demand slows but does not collapse.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Technology +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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