Possible scenario
Demand Slowdown Deepens
25% Chance
A more negative path is that weak real wages signal a broader deterioration in household demand and business confidence. The recent hiring slowdown becomes self-reinforcing as companies protect margins through headcount restraint and reduced hours.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.