Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
18% Chance
The political embarrassment created by the leak increases incentives for Washington and Tehran to stabilize the situation before more damaging disclosures or attacks occur. Qatar and Oman use their channels to negotiate a limited pause or rules-of-the-road arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.