Possible scenario
Regulatory friction slows rollout
25% Chance
The CFTC, NFA, or state regulators may require additional controls before a permissioned on-chain perps venue can serve U.S. traders at scale. Even after Kraken's CFTC approval, regulators are likely to scrutinize market surveillance, custody, liquidation mechanics, disclosures, and retail access.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- CME+0.3%
- COIN-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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