Possible scenario
Voluntary AI Compact
45% Chance
The White House converts Trump's self-regulation message into a voluntary AI safety compact built around company attestations, model testing disclosures, and NIST-style guidance rather than binding rules. This is the most likely path because it preserves the administration's pro-innovation posture while giving agencies a framework to cite after the June 2026 oversight order.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.2%
- Business Services +0.8%
- Telecommunications +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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