Possible scenario
State Backlash Grows
25% Chance
Democratic-led states respond to the White House's self-regulation turn by accelerating their own AI bills on transparency, deepfakes, employment screening, and model safety. This outcome is plausible because the Senate already rejected a blanket state-law ban in July 2025, leaving state capitals with room to act.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Business Services -0.7%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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