Possible scenario
Hybrid Oversight Regime
20% Chance
Trump's team keeps self-regulation as the public message but preserves targeted federal controls for national security, federal procurement, and biological or cyber-risk use cases. This balances tech-industry demands with the administration's June 2026 oversight order and national-security priorities.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Business Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Tickers
- PLTR+2.0%
- MSFT+1.2%
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.