Possible scenario
March Allowed With Conditions
35% Chance
The Belfast High Court permits the Orange Order parade to proceed but attaches strict timing, stewarding, and policing conditions. This is the most likely path because the earlier ban was overturned, but the court will want to reduce confrontation on Garvaghy Road.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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