Possible scenario
Negotiated Pause
20% Chance
The abandonment of a short-war target could also create diplomatic space, because Washington may prefer a pause while inventories are rebuilt. Iran may accept limited talks if oil exports, sanctions waivers, or nuclear-site guarantees are part of the package.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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