Managed Long War

The most likely path is a prolonged but controlled U.S. air-and-missile campaign against Iran, with Washington accepting that the conflict will run well beyond the abandoned eight-week target. Expanded munitions production helps reassure allies and defense planners, but it does not immediately solve shortages in SM-6, Patriot interceptors, JDAM kits, and other precision weapons.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.