Possible scenario
Yields Extend Higher
30% Chance
The bond selloff resumes as investors demand more term premium for fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, and heavy sovereign issuance. Equities give back part of their advance, with rate-sensitive sectors underperforming over the next one to two sessions.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.3%
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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