Possible scenario
Equities Ignore Yields
20% Chance
Stocks continue to look through the bond-market volatility, helped by resilient earnings expectations, systematic buying, and quarter-end positioning flows. Higher yields become a rotation story rather than a broad risk-off event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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