Possible scenario
Domestic Political Escalation
20% Chance
The case becomes a rallying point for Bolsonaro supporters who argue that the Supreme Court has overreached. Protests, congressional hearings, and online mobilization intensify pressure on Brazil’s institutions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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