Possible scenario
Diplomatic Standoff
25% Chance
Italy declines to restrict Eduardo Bolsonaro’s movement, citing citizenship rights and passport validity. Brazil responds with sharper legal measures, but the dispute remains mostly diplomatic and judicial rather than economic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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